The K-shaped economy is alive and well
For all the talk about a “resilient consumer,” it’s worth asking: Which consumer are we talking about here?
Because the economy is splintering in different directions right now, framing it as a cohesive narrative is misleading. Higher-income households (roughly $125K+) are still spending at a solid clip, while everyone else is noticeably more constrained. Since 2023, real spending from higher earners has climbed about 7.6%, compared to roughly 3% for middle-income households (~$40K–$125K) and just over 1% for lower-income groups (under ~$40K) — meaning most of the growth is coming from the top.
Data: Federal Reserve Bank of New York | Chart: Axios
It’s a pretty ironic dichotomy, because on the surface, it looks like: Spending remains surprisingly stable. The labor market continues to hold together. Stocks are ripping through all-time highs after a brutal March selloff.
Meanwhile, other signals beneath the surface also look unhealthy. The personal savings rate has continued falling, dropping to roughly 3.6% in March, down sharply from levels above 6% just a couple of years ago. Credit card APRs also remain near record highs, with many borrowers now facing rates above ~22%. Household debt levels continue to climb, though recent New York Fed data suggest the pressure remains unevenly distributed rather than universally deteriorating.
Housing continues to reinforce the same divide. Mortgage rates moved back toward the mid-6% range this week, once again freezing many middle-income buyers out of the market while wealthier households and existing homeowners remain relatively insulated. Increasingly, homeownership itself feels less like a normal financial milestone and more like a privilege reserved for consumers who either bought earlier, earn substantially more, or already possess significant assets.
And let’s not overlook this: a Wall Street Journal report last week found that the number of Americans with “super-prime” credit scores above 780 has increased by roughly 15 million over the last six years. But on the flip side of that: Credit-card debt has climbed to a record $1.3 trillion, delinquencies are rising to levels we haven’t seen in over a decade, and lenders are increasingly reserving larger credit lines and premium products for already high-credit consumers.
The result of these splintering narratives is an economy that still functions in aggregate but increasingly feels divided beneath the surface. Some households continue to spend, invest, travel, and benefit from rising asset prices. Others are adapting to a reality defined by high borrowing costs, declining affordability, lower savings, and constant financial unpredictability. The economy may still be growing overall. But the experience of participating in it is becoming increasingly unequal.
Answers to your questions
Yes. Origin offers partner access so you can manage your finances together at no additional cost. You’ll be able to filter transactions by member—making it easy to see which spending is yours and which belongs to your partner.
Yes. You can edit existing transactions and add new ones directly in Origin, so your records stay accurate and personalized.
Origin connects securely through trusted partners including Plaid, MX, and Mastercard.
Yes. Origin supports CSV uploads. You can upload a .csv file of your transactions, and we’ll import them into your account.
Yes. Your data is protected with bank-level security and advanced encryption. When you connect accounts through Origin, your login credentials are never shared with us. Instead, our partners generate secure tokens that let Origin access only the data you authorize—keeping your personal information private while enabling personalized insights.
Yes. You have full control to organize your spending in Origin. Transactions are automatically categorized by Origin, but you can always edit categories, add your own tags, and filter transactions however you like—so your spending reflects the way you actually manage money.
