Here's what just happened with tariffs
Tariffs are off. Wait, psych, they’re back. Wait — not all of them though. Tariff refunds might be a thing. Maybe, but also maybe not, but maybe on some of it? Nobody knows anything. For now.
After months of waiting, the majority of Trump’s sweeping, reciprocal, global tariff strategy was just ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court via a 6-3 vote, denoting in a statement saying: “The President may not unilaterally impose sweeping tariffs under emergency economic powers when Congress has not clearly authorized such broad action,” So, the court essentially ruled that the statute under which the President justified the tariffs did not grant the executive branch open-ended authority to restructure large swaths of U.S. trade policy on its own.
This ruling doesn’t erase all tariffs, though, just the broad, sweeping, “reciprocal” ones — the country-by-country rates that ran as high as 34% on China and set a 10% baseline on much of the world — along with the 25% fentanyl-related tariffs on goods from Canada, China, and Mexico. That means some remain in place, such as the tax on automotive imports, furniture, steel, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.
Regardless, the White House pivoted to its plan B quickly on Friday, reinstating a global 10% tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act — a provision that allows temporary tariffs for up to 150 days. Then, on Saturday, Trump announced this global tariff would actually be 15%.
During that window, the administration plans to pursue new investigations under Section 301, which could support more permanent, targeted tariffs. Translation: the 34% structure is gone (for now), and a flat 15% baseline is in…for now. And the longer-term trade picture is being rebuilt in real time.
The initial ruling also sparked an interesting debate — wait, so…are businesses (or Americans) who paid tariffs getting a refund of sorts? The US collected roughly $133 btaillion in tariff revenue last year, and after the ruling, some business owners began to wonder if they could pursue refunds for their tariff bills. Some politicians are calling for refund checks, companies are filing suits, governors are sending refund bills to the White House, and the rest of us are just…confused and waiting.
Whether any of this is right or wrong is for legal experts and politicians to decide; we’re not here to debate morals, just implications.
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