Black Friday spending set to break records once again
Black Friday is by far the most spend-happy shopping day in the United States. Last year, almost 200 million people shopped online or in stores — that’s over half of the U.S. population. And it’s not expected to lose any steam this year: The total projected spending for Black Friday shopping is around $80 billion, and Adobe projects online Black Friday sales alone will reach about $11.7 billion, up 8% from last year. Overall, U.S. holiday spending is forecast to reach approximately $1 trillion for the first time ever, with over a quarter ($250 billion) of that coming from online shopping.
Source: NRF | Source: Omnisend
But there’s a subtle, revealing trend line toward frugality beneath those surface-level numbers. On the whole, consumers plan to spend less this holiday season — about 5% less year over year — with the average shopper expected to drop roughly $1,595, a 10% decline from 2024. Nearly 84% say they’ll cut back over the next six months, blaming higher prices, tariffs, and a still-expensive cost of living. Gen Z, of course, is feeling it most: They expect to slash spending by 23%, the sharpest pullback of any generation. But still, even as wallets tighten, many shoppers are finding new ways to stretch them — BNPL transactions, for example, are set to fund roughly $20 billion in purchases across the full holiday season (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31), up 11% from last year.
The deals themselves will still be aggressive — average discounts are holding steady around 28%, on par with 2024 — but the psychology is shifting. More than three-quarters of shoppers are hunting for cheaper alternatives, 33% plan to use generative AI to find them, and 70% say they’re juggling three or more deal-seeking tactics.
